国际货币基金组织小幅下调今年全球经济增长预期

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The International Monetary Fund has modestly reduced its forecast for global economic growth this year, but warned that the damage from the war with Iran could be much more severe if the conflict dragged on and oil prices rose further.
国际货币基金组织（IMF）小幅下调了今年全球经济增长预期，但警告称，如果与伊朗的战争持续下去并导致油价进一步上涨，其造成的损害可能会更加严重。
“Once again, the global economy is being threatened with being thrown off course — this time by the outbreak of war in the Middle East,” the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook report, published today.
IMF在今天发布的最新《世界经济展望》报告中表示：“全球经济再次面临偏离轨道的威胁——这一次是由于中东战争爆发。”

The fund now expects global growth of 3.1% in 2026, a 0.2 percentage point downgrade from its January forecast. This modest revision assumes that the war will be “relatively short-lived,” it said.
基金现在预计2026年全球经济增长为3.1%，比今年1月的预测下调了0.2个百分点。IMF表示，这一小幅修正基于战争将是“相对短暂”的假设。

However, it also outlined two scenarios for a longer-lasting conflict. Under the more severe of these — in which oil and natural gas prices spike 100-200% relative to January and stay at that level into 2027 — global economic growth would come in at only 2% this year.
然而，IMF还勾勒了两种可能的长期冲突情景。在更严重的情景下——油价和天然气价格相较1月飙升100%至200%，并持续到2027年——今年全球经济增长将仅为2%。

That would amount to “a close call for a global recession,” defined as economic growth below 2%, which has happened only four times since 1980, the IMF said.
IMF表示，这将意味着“全球经济衰退几乎发生”，而全球经济衰退被定义为经济增长低于2%，自1980年以来仅发生过四次。

Before the war, the global economy was performing better than expected with growth on track to be revised upward this year, it noted. In one positive development, the downward revision was partly offset by reduced US tariff rates compared with last year, the IMF said.
IMF指出，战争爆发前，全球经济表现好于预期，今年的增长本有望上调。IMF表示，其中一个积极因素是，与去年相比，美国降低的关税部分抵消了此次下调影响。

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