外刊精读 | 罕见,国际货币基金组织“点赞”印度

随遇而安428

<img   />

<img   />

<img   />

<img   />

<img   />

<img   />

<img   />

原标题：


先看原文▼▼▼


图源：Reuters

The International Monetary Fund cut its growth outlook on Tuesday due to Middle East war-driven energy price spikes but said the world was already drifting toward a more adverse scenario with much-weaker growth as Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions continue.

国际货币基金组织周二下调了全球经济增长预期，原因是中东战争推高了能源价格，但同时指出，随着霍尔木兹海峡航运持续受阻，全球经济正逐渐滑向一个增长明显放缓的更不利情景。

With massive uncertainty over the Middle East conflict gripping finance officials gathered for IMF and World Bank spring meetings in ‌Washington, the IMF presented three growth scenarios: weaker, worse and severe, depending on how the war unfolds.

在华盛顿出席国际货币基金组织和世界银行春季会议的各国财政官员正深受中东冲突巨大不确定性的困扰。IMF据此提出了三种增长情景：较弱、更差和严重，取决于战争如何演变。

Under the IMF's worst-case outlook, the global economy teeters on the brink of recession, with oil prices averaging $110 a barrel in 2026 and $125 in 2027.

在IMF最悲观的预测中，全球经济将徘徊在衰退边缘，油价预计2026年平均每桶110美元，2027年升至125美元。

The IMF chose the most benign scenario for its World Economic Outlook "reference forecast," which assumes a short-lived conflict and oil prices normalizing in the second half of 2026, with an $82 per-barrel average for the year - well below Tuesday's benchmark Brent crude futures price of around $96.00.

国际货币基金组织在《世界经济展望》的“基准预测”中选择了最温和的情景，假设冲突持续时间较短，油价将在2026年下半年恢复正常，全年均价为每桶82美元——明显低于周二约96美元的布伦特原油期货基准价格。

Just minutes after releasing the outlook, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said it may be already outdated. He told reporters that with continued energy disruptions and no clear path to end the conflict, the IMF's "adverse scenario" looks increasingly likely.

就在报告发布几分钟后，IMF首席经济学家皮埃尔-奥利维耶·古兰沙表示，这一预测可能已经过时。他对记者称，随着能源供应持续受扰、冲突看不到明确结束路径，IMF所设定的“较差情景”正变得越来越可能。

That middle path envisions a longer conflict that keeps oil prices around $100 per barrel this year and $75 in 2027, with global growth falling to 2.5% this year from 3.4% in 2025.

这一中间情景假设冲突持续时间更长，使今年油价维持在每桶约100美元，2027年降至75美元，同时全球经济增速将从2025年的3.4%降至今年的2.5%。

"I would say that we are somewhere in between the reference scenario and the adverse scenario," Gourinchas said. "And of course, every day that passes and every day that we have more disruption in ⁠energy, we are drifting closer towards the adverse scenario."

古兰沙表示：“我认为我们目前处在基准情景和较差情景之间。当然，每过去一天、能源扰动每增加一分，我们就更接近较差情景。”

Absent the Middle East conflict, the IMF said it would have upgraded its growth outlook by 0.1 percentage point to 3.4%, due to a continued technology investment boom, lower interest rates, less-severe U.S. tariffs and fiscal support in some countries.

IMF表示，如果没有中东冲突，其本会将增长预期上调0.1个百分点至3.4%，原因包括科技投资热潮持续、利率下降、美国关税压力减轻以及部分国家的财政支持。

The IMF in January had forecast that oil would decline to about $62 in 2026.

IMF在今年1月曾预测，2026年油价将降至约62美元。

The IMF's worst-case "severe scenario" assumes an extended and deepening conflict and much higher oil prices that prompt major financial market dislocations and tighter financial conditions, slashing global growth to 2.0%.

IMF最糟糕的“严重情景”假设冲突持续时间更长且不断升级，油价大幅飙升，引发金融市场严重动荡和融资环境收紧，从而将全球经济增速压低至2.0%。

"This would mean a close call for a global recession," the IMF said, adding that growth has been below that level only four times since 1980 - with the last two severe recessions in 2009, following the financial crisis, and in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic raged.

IMF表示，这将意味着全球经济“几乎陷入衰退”。IMF补充称，自1980年以来，全球增长低于这一水平的情况仅出现过四次，其中最近两次严重衰退分别发生在2009年（金融危机之后）和2020年（新冠疫情肆虐期间）。

Gourinchas said that a number of countries would be in outright recessions under this scenario, with oil prices averaging $110 per barrel in 2026 and $125 in 2027. Prices at this level for an extended time would also increase expectations "that inflation is here to stay," prompting wider price increases and wage hike demands.

古兰沙表示，在这一情景下，许多国家将出现实际意义上的经济衰退，油价预计2026年平均每桶110美元，2027年为125美元。如果油价长期维持在这一水平，还会强化“通胀将长期存在”的预期，从而推动更广泛的物价上涨和加薪诉求。

"That change in inflation expectations is going to require central banks to step on the brakes and try to bring inflation back down," he said, adding that this may require more pain than in 2022.

他表示：“通胀预期的这种变化将迫使各国央行踩下刹车，努力将通胀压下来。”他还补充称，这可能需要比2022年更大的代价。

The IMF said, however, that central banks may be able to "look through" a short-lived energy price surge and hold rates steady amid weaker activity, which would be a de facto monetary easing, but only if inflation expectations remain anchored.

不过，IMF也表示，如果能源价格上涨只是短期现象，且通胀预期仍保持稳定，央行或许可以“忽略”这一冲击，在经济走弱的情况下维持利率不变，这在事实上等同于一种货币宽松。

Global inflation for 2026 would top 6% in the severe scenario, compared to 4.4% in the most-optimistic reference scenario, which is the assumption for the IMF's country and regional growth forecasts.

在严重情景下，2026年全球通胀将超过6%；而在最乐观的基准情景中，这一数字为4.4%。IMF对各国和各地区增长的预测正是基于这一基准情景。

The IMF shaved its U.S. growth outlook for this ‌year to 2.3%, ⁠down just a tenth of a percentage point from January, reflecting the positive effect of tax cuts, the lagged effect of interest rate cuts and continued AI data center investment partly offsetting the higher energy costs. These effects are expected to continue in 2027, with growth now forecast at 2.1%, up a tenth of a point from January.

IMF将今年美国经济增长预期小幅下调至2.3%，较1月仅下调0.1个百分点。这反映出减税、此前降息的滞后效应以及持续的人工智能数据中心投资，在一定程度上抵消了能源成本上升的影响。预计这些因素将在2027年持续发挥作用，届时增长率为2.1%，较1月上调0.1个百分点。

The euro zone, still struggling with higher energy prices caused by Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, takes a bigger hit from the Middle East conflict, with its growth outlook falling 0.2 percentage points in both years to 1.1% in 2026 and 1.2% for 2027.

欧元区仍在应对俄罗斯2022年入侵乌克兰带来的高能源价格冲击，在中东冲突中受到更大影响，其增长预期在两年中均下调0.2个百分点，分别为2026年的1.1%和2027年的1.2%。

Japan's growth is largely unchanged under the most benign scenario at a weak 0.7% for 2026 and 0.6% for 2027, but the IMF said that it expects the Bank of Japan to hike rates at a slightly faster pace than anticipated six months ago.

在最温和的情景下，日本经济增长基本维持不变，2026年为0.7%，2027年为0.6%。不过IMF表示，预计日本央行加息步伐将略快于半年前的预期。

The IMF forecast China's growth for 2026 at 4.4%, down a tenth of a point from January as the higher energy and ⁠commodity costs are partly offset by lower U.S. tariff rates and government stimulus measures. But the IMF said headwinds from a depressed housing sector, a declining labor force, lower returns on investment and slower productivity growth will cut China's 2027 growth to 4.0%, a forecast unchanged from January.

IMF预计中国2026年经济增长为4.4%，较1月下调0.1个百分点，因为能源和大宗商品成本上升的影响，部分被美国关税下降和政府刺激措施所抵消。不过IMF指出，房地产市场低迷、劳动力减少、投资回报下降以及生产率增长放缓等不利因素，将使中国2027年的增速降至4.0%，这一预测与1月持平。

Overall, emerging market and developing economies, where GDP tends to be more dependent on oil inputs, take a bigger hit from the Middle East conflict than advanced economies, with 2026 growth seen falling 0.3 percentage points to 3.9%.

总体来看，新兴市场和发展中经济体由于对石油投入依赖更高，受到中东冲突的冲击大于发达经济体，预计2026年经济增速将下降0.3个百分点至3.9%。

Nowhere is this more pronounced than at the epicenter of the conflict in the Middle East and Central Asia region, which will ⁠see its 2026 GDP growth fall by two full percentage points to 1.9% amid widespread infrastructure damage and sharply curtailed energy and commodity exports.

这种影响在冲突中心——中东和中亚地区尤为明显。在基础设施广泛受损以及能源和大宗商品出口大幅受限的情况下，该地区2026年经济增速将下降整整2个百分点至1.9%。

GDP declines for 2026 are forecast at 6.1% for Iran, 8.6% for Qatar, 6.8% for Iraq, 0.6% for Kuwait and 0.5% for Bahrain.

IMF预测，2026年伊朗GDP将下降6.1%，卡塔尔下降8.6%，伊拉克下降6.8%，科威特下降0.6%，巴林下降0.5%。

But under the assumption of a short-lived conflict, the region bounces back quickly, with 2027 GDP growth rebounding to 4.6%, a jump of 0.6 percentage point from the January forecasts.

但在冲突持续时间较短的假设下，该地区将迅速反弹，2027年经济增速将回升至4.6%，较1月预测提高0.6个百分点。

The one bright spot amid emerging markets is India, which saw growth upgrades of about a tenth of a percentage point to 6.5% for both ⁠2026 and 2027, due in part to momentum from strong growth at the end of last year and a deal to lower the U.S. tariff rate on Indian imports.

在新兴市场中，印度成为一大亮点。受去年年底强劲增长动能以及与美国达成降低关税协议的推动，其2026年和2027年增长预期均上调约0.1个百分点至6.5%。

The IMF said that governments will be tempted to implement fiscal measures to ease the pain of higher energy prices, including price caps, fuel subsidies or tax cuts, but cautioned against these urges amid still-elevated budget deficits and rising public debt.

IMF表示，各国政府可能会倾向于采取财政措施来缓解高能源价格带来的压力，例如设定价格上限、提供燃料补贴或减税。但IMF警告，在财政赤字仍然较高、公共债务不断上升的背景下，应谨慎行事。

Gourinchas said it was "perfectly legitimate" to want to protect the most vulnerable, but subsidies in one country could lead to fuel shortages in others that can't afford them.

古兰沙表示，保护最脆弱群体“完全正当”，但一个国家提供补贴，可能会导致其他无力负担的国家出现燃料短缺。

"You have to do it in a very targeted, very temporary way that doesn't really mess up the fiscal framework" needed by most countries to rebuild their fiscal buffers, he said.

他表示：“相关措施必须非常有针对性、具有临时性，不能扰乱各国重建财政缓冲所需的财政框架。”

精读


Words词汇

Spike /spaɪk/ n., v.

a sudden large increase in sth, especially in price, rate, etc.; to increase suddenly and sharply 激增；（使）急剧上升

Oil prices spiked after the conflict disrupted supply routes.

在冲突扰乱供应线路后，油价出现了飙升。

Drift /drɪft/ v., n.

to move slowly, especially as a result of outside forces, without a clear direction; a slow change or movement 漂移；逐渐趋向；缓慢变化

The economy is drifting toward a period of slower growth.

经济正逐渐走向增长放缓的阶段。

Grip /ɡrɪp/ v.

to have a strong effect on sb; to take control of sb’s feelings or attention 紧抓；强烈影响；笼罩

Uncertainty gripped investors during the crisis.

在危机期间，不确定性笼罩着投资者。

Teeter /ˈtiːtə(r)/ v.

to be in an unstable position and likely to fall; to be very close to a serious situation 摇摇欲坠；濒临（某种状态）

The global economy is teetering on the brink of recession.

全球经济正徘徊在衰退的边缘。

Envision /ɪnˈvɪʒn/ v.

to imagine what a situation will be like in the future, especially a good or desirable one 展望；设想；想象

The report envisions a longer conflict with sustained high energy prices.

该报告设想冲突将持续更久，并伴随长期高企的能源价格。

Slash /slæʃ/ v.

to reduce sth by a large amount 大幅削减；猛降

Rising costs could slash global growth rates.

成本上升可能会大幅削弱全球经济增长率。

Outright /ˈaʊtraɪt/ adj., adv.

complete and total; used to emphasize that sth is fully or clearly the case 彻底的；完全的；（强调）直接地、彻底地

Several countries may fall into outright recession under the worst-case scenario.

在最糟糕的情景下，一些国家可能会陷入彻底的经济衰退。

Expressions词组与表达

International Monetary Fund

IMF

国际货币基金组织

on the brink of

处于……边缘；濒临（某种状态）

The company is on the brink of bankruptcy after years of losses.

这家公司在多年亏损后已濒临破产。

for an extended time

长时间地；持续较长一段时间

High inflation persisted for an extended time, affecting household spending.

高通胀持续了很长一段时间，影响了家庭支出。

remain anchored

保持稳定；（预期等）保持不变

Central banks aim to keep inflation expectations well anchored.

各国央行力求让通胀预期保持稳定。

tax cuts

减税

The government introduced tax cuts to stimulate economic growth.

政府推出减税措施以刺激经济增长。

price caps

价格上限；限价措施

Authorities imposed price caps on energy to protect consumers.

当局对能源价格设定上限以保护消费者。

budget deficits

财政赤字

Rising spending has led to widening budget deficits.

支出增加导致财政赤字不断扩大。

public debt

公共债务；政府债务

High public debt limits a country's ability to respond to crises.

高额公共债务限制了一国应对危机的能力。

mess up

搞乱；破坏；把事情弄糟

Poor planning can mess up an otherwise successful project.

糟糕的规划会把原本成功的项目搞砸。

延申阅读（一些背景知识）


国际货币基金组织

国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund，缩写：IMF），世界两大金融机构之一。
于1945年12月27日成立1，由189个国家组成，总部设置于美国华盛顿特区。
致力于促进全球货币合作，确保金融稳定，促进国际贸易。职责是监察货币汇率和各国贸易情况、提供技术和资金协助，确保全球金融制度运作正常。

《世界经济展望》

《世界经济展望》介绍国际货币基金组织工作人员对全球层面、主要国家组（按地区和经济发展阶段等划分）和许多单个国家的经济发展的分析和预测。

重点是经济政策问题以及对经济发展和前景的分析。

通常每年出版两期，作为国际货币与金融委员会会议的文件，而且是基金组织进行全球监督活动的主要工具。



你可能错过的REVIEW

外刊精读 | 美伊冲突，反转来了外刊精读 | 谈判失败后，美国开始“过河拆桥”外刊精读 | 美伊马拉松式谈判，“双方情绪起伏较大”TED：如何破解自我攻击？脑科学有答案TED：运气可控吗？可否自主培育运气？外刊精读 | 美伊停火？不，局部风波仍在持续外刊精读 | 美伊达成停火！各国反应亮了外刊精读 | 最后通牒临近，霍尔木兹海峡未开，油价持续上涨外刊 | 最后期限临近，美伊冲突何去何从？


Quinn英语想将英语学习当作一生事业的英专人专四 | 专八 | 英语高中教资 | 三笔

*素材来源：The Reuters、维基百科点赞，转发，在看，关注，都是世间灵魂最深刻的回响。

作者：微信文章